Abstract
In locally advanced lung cancer, established baseline clinical variables show limited prognostic accuracy and 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG PET) radiomics features may increase accuracy for optimal treatment selection. Their robustness and added value relative to current clinical factors are unknown. Hence, we identify robust and independent PET radiomics features that may have complementary value in predicting survival endpoints. A 4D PET dataset (n = 70) was used for assessing the repeatability (Bland-Altman analysis) and independence of PET radiomics features (Spearman rank: |ρ|<0.5). Two 3D PET datasets combined (n = 252) were used for training and validation of an elastic net regularized generalized logistic regression model (GLM) based on a selection of clinical and robust independent PET radiomics features (GLMall). The fitted model performance was externally validated (n = 40). The performance of GLMall (measured with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUC) was highest in predicting 2-year overall survival (0.66±0.07). No significant improvement was observed for GLMall compared to a model containing only PET radiomics features or only clinical variables for any clinical endpoint. External validation of GLMall led to AUC values no higher than 0.55 for any clinical endpoint. In this study, robust independent FDG PET radiomics features did not have complementary value in predicting survival endpoints in lung cancer patients. Improving risk stratification and clinical decision making based on clinical variables and PET radiomics features has still been proven difficult in locally advanced lung cancer patients.