Abstract
Aim: Perform early economic evaluation comparing active surveillance (AS) to surgery for women with low-risk ductal carcinoma in situ, a precursor of invasive breast cancer.Materials & methods: A 10-year incremental costs (€) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were compared between a simulated cohort of women undergoing breast conserving surgery ± radiotherapy, and a cohort with a low-risk subgroup undergoing AS using a semi-Markov model. Scenario and headroom analyses evaluated a better-performing biomarker to select low-risk women for AS.Results: AS resulted in lower costs and survival, but higher QALYs (±0.40). Scenario analyses maintained survival outcomes and maximized QALYs.Conclusion: AS for low-risk ductal carcinoma in situ is cost-effective, but a better-performing biomarker to select low-risk women can maximize quality-adjusted outcomes.